Wednesday, May 21, 2014

What to expect from Cuonzo Martin Schematically

"[T]hey stayed consistent on the defensive side of the ball. That was the most important thing, because the offense will come. Sometimes the shots won’t fall, but if you can defend at the level you need to, we can be successful.” 
This statement is telling as to the type of coach Cuonzo Martin wants to be. He wants to stress defense, rebounding, effort, and trusting the process. 

I will look at how that assertion stacks up historically, delving into the statistics to see how Cuonzo Martin teams have played historically. 

DEFENSE:

Simply put, Martin's teams play hard, disciplined defense. You don't see a lot of gambling or trapping (310th Nationally in Turnovers Forced, 249th in Opponents Turnover Rate), yet they still rank solidly in Per-Possession Defensive Statistics. In 2013-14, Tennessee allowed 0.96 PPP, well below the national average of 1.03 PPP. Martin's teams were more stout than the national average in his first two seasons as well, at 0.97 PPP both years. 

To post these impressive defensive statistics with straight-up defensive schemes lacking a lot of switching or double-teams means that Martin was blessed with a wealth of good individual defenders. Of the players that were on the court for more than 200 minutes in 2013-14, the Volunteers only had 3 players with a below-average defensive rating. On the contrary, 7 players had a DRtg below 100. 

What this means for Cal:

If Martin sticks to his defensive schemes, Cal will struggle defensively. They are losing their only above-average defender and rim-protector in Richard Solomon. Furthermore, Jordan Mathews, Jabari Bird, Sam Singer, and Tyrone Wallace are all below-average to bad defenders on the wings. 

I think this Cal team will be an excellent experiment in the belief that defense is dependent largely on effort and willingness. 

REBOUNDING:

In 2013-14 Cuonzo Martin's Volunteers rebounded the ball at the 2nd best rate in the country at 57.9%. Additionally, they fared very well in terms of total rebounds, pulling in 35.9 per game (good for 15th nationally). What was especially impressive was that the Volunteers had 7 players with a REB% of 10% or higher, showing a concerted team-wide effort to securing the possession. This commitment to defensive rebounding did have a major effect on the pace of the game where they ranked 323rd nationally in Pomeroy's AdjT. 

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY:

Martin's teams can afford to play at a slower pace because his teams show a commitment to valuing possessions and creating efficient shots. Their 1.11 PPP was in the top 25 nationally, and Pomeroy's AdjO rated them 17th. For comparison, Cal was outside the top 100 last year. Martin's offense relies much less on set movements, allowing the players more freedom, and often utilizes the oft-efficient Pick and Roll. Instead of a lot of passing on the perimeter to get the defense moving, Martin's offense uses more off-ball cutting and movement when not going to the P&R.

With the offensive weapons Cal has, it will be a treat to watch them grow with Cuonzo's offense. In both stints as a head coach, his offense has improved each year, becoming vastly more efficient. 

I think it is pretty clear that Martin knows what he wants from his players, has a plan, and his teams play the same style as his stated goals. It will be interesting to see how he molds this Cal team in the near future.